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Weavara Daily Brief Nov 27, 2025
Apple Inc.
AAPL · Information Technology
$277.55
+0.21% · YTD +13.82%

Apple is projected to overtake Samsung as the world's top smartphone vendor in 2025 for the first time since 2011, with Counterpoint Research forecasting a 19.4% market share driven by 10% YoY shipment growth. This outlook is supported by strong iPhone 17 demand, particularly in China where Apple captured a 26% share during the Singles' Day festival and single-handedly drove the market's 3% sales growth per Counterpoint. The company's stock reached an all-time high of $280.38, pushing its valuation to $4.12 trillion, as JPMorgan noted increased clarity on CEO succession.

iPhone revenue grew 4% in FY2025 to $209.6B, representing 50% of total sales per the 10-K. Management expects a return to growth in China, which accounted for $64.4B in FY2025 sales, citing strong iPhone reception on the Oct 30 call.
Major Developments
Future iPhone Roadmap Bullish

Apple plans to introduce three new iPhone models within the next three years. Bloomberg reports Apple is preparing iPhone Fold, iPhone 17e, and a special 20th-anniversary model for 2026-2027.

Management called the current lineup the "strongest ever" on the Oct 30 call, driving record Q4 revenue and guiding for double-digit growth.
Risk Factors
Perceived AI Strategy Lag Mixed

Apple's AI strategy has been described as "lackluster" by the CNBC Investing Club, which suggests a "long-delayed conversational Siri" is needed to stimulate an upgrade cycle. This poses a competitive risk if rivals like Samsung are seen as advancing more rapidly in on-device AI.

Management emphasized its AI strategy on the Oct 30 call, highlighting the launch of "Apple Intelligence" powered by on-device models. They confirmed a "significant step-up" in R&D spending for AI, which grew 10% to $34.6B in FY2025 per the 10-K.

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Context that answers "so what?"

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Quantified Materiality
"Apple challenges India's new antitrust law, which allows fines based on global turnover"
A potential $38B fine represents 34% of Apple's annual profit—FY2025 net income was $112B per the 10-K.
Channel Read-Through
"Best Buy beat estimates, with CEO citing 'new iPhones' as driving upgrades"
Indirect channels including resellers like Best Buy accounted for 60% of Apple's total net sales in FY2025 per the 10-K.
Supply Chain Risk
"Taiwan raids former TSMC exec's home in trade secrets probe"
Apple's FY2025 10-K discloses material dependency on single- or limited-source component suppliers located primarily in Asia.